::The gravy train is running out of steam:: [/tech/jobs] (00:31)

It seems to make some people mad, but I think most tech workers in the US are significantly overpaid. I think that we all have to get used to the fact that tech salaries in the US are due for some serious downward correction.

I've been working as a programmer for about 8 years now. My starting salary 8 years ago is significantly more than most non-techies i know make even today. Yet over the last 8 years, I've seen an average 10% increase in salary. (that's more than a 150% eincrease)

Certainly my ego wants to believe that my l33t skillz are worth such a premium, but I see an end coming. This year was the first year that I didn't see a large year over year salary increase. I changed jobs last August with only a token increase in pay. (actually, with the decrease in benefits, it probably comes out to a net loss) All this makes me wonder if perhaps, at 30, if my salary has peaked as a programmer with no management responsibilities.

In real terms, I think tech salaries have nowhere to go but down. As much as I'd like it to be otherwise, I don't see any business justification for programmers to demand such high salaries across the board. It's only a matter of time before free market forces pull things down.

Note: The title for this entry comes from Dave Thomas' How to keep your job talk. (slide 25 if you are keeping score) I was fortunate to hear him give the talk in person at AustinJUG, but the online slides are still quite informative. The second half is really good and worth checking out if you haven't seen it yet.